CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Mon 17 Oct 06:00 - Tue 18 Oct 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 17 Oct 08:49 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06 UTC... in the mid-troposphere an omega-shaped blocked flow pattern existed over Europe...that was formed by a high pressure area over southern Scandinavia and a ridge extending from this system southward. Ahead of an elongated trough over the Atlantic Ocean warm... moist air at low levels flows northward along the Iberian West coast towards western Ireland. A large vertically-stacked cylone over Moldavia diverts a cold air-mass off the northern Balkan peninsula onto the Black Sea.

DISCUSSION

...southwestern Ireland... ...
The leading edge of the warm conveyor belt stretching from Portugal northward is formed by a warm front that should reach southwestern Ireland during the afternoon. Scattered convective storms are expected to occur within this plume. It is possible that a zone of surface-based instability and veering wind profiles with height and around 20 m/s of 0-6 km shear will form within the warm air-mass near the front. As a result, a small chance of tornadoes will exist over southwestern Ireland. The chance is too small to warrant a risk category.

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